Pension funds have become seriously underfunded. According to a recent report from Credit Suisse some of the nation’s largest companies owe their pensions more than 25% of their market cap (after taxes).
Pension Shortfall as Percentage of Market Cap
AK Steel (99%)
ITT (83%)
Goodyear Tire (67%)
United States Steel (59%)
Sears (43%)
Lockheed Martin (39%)
Supervalu (39%)
Computer Sciences (37%)
Whirlpool (33%)
Ford Motor (32%)
Alcoa (30%)
Donnelley (29%)
Textron (27%)
Raytheon (25%)
Source: Credit Suisse
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This developing situation is potentially market moving because it could require companies to make larger contributions – much larger. And if contributions ‘do’ go up, the money will have to come from someplace on the balance sheet.
“A pension accounting change at UPS will result in $527 million after tax charge in 2011,” says Joe Terranova. “And Sunoco said they have to contribute $80 million into their pension funds.”
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“I think in 2012 it will be a recurring issue,” Terranova says.
John Ehrhardt of Milliman confirms the thesis. He tells us that investors should expect record numbers of earnings charges in 2012.
“Record low interest rates result in historically high liabilities and the only remaining lever may be employer contributions.”
And according to Ehrhardt this may be just the tip of the iceberg. “These companies are going to need 20-30% returns to fill the kinds of gaps we’re talking about.”
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